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Foreign trade enterprises need to respond in advance

release date: Source: China business

since this year, affected by the COVID-19, the world economy has suffered a serious recession and the international financial market has also experienced severe shocks. In this case, China's foreign exchange revenue and expenditure situation has achieved overall stability, and the foreign exchange market has shown relatively high resilience and risk resistance

wangchunying, deputy director and spokesman of the State Administration of foreign exchange, revealed that from the perspective of exchange rate flexibility, the fluctuation range between the highest and lowest points of the RMB exchange rate in the first half of the year was 4.4%, which was relatively stable

in the second half of the year, the pressure of RMB appreciation will increase. In this regard, foreign trade enterprises, especially export enterprises, need to make a response plan in advance

the overall performance in the first half of the year was stable

"the overall trend of exchange rate in the first half of the year was beneficial to exports." In an interview with the international business daily, Mr. Fan, head of a foreign trade enterprise in the bathroom industry in Shanghai, said that the RMB appreciated in the second half of last year and the exchange rate depreciated in the first half of this year, which was originally good for the export of complete sets of testing technologies such as sampling testing, steel chemical composition analysis, paint testing, building engineering materials, waterproof materials testing, and energy-saving testing. However, due to the spread of the epidemic overseas, the order volume and export volume have been affected, and the benefits of enterprises are relatively limited. At the same time, the rise and fall of the RMB exchange rate against the United States have changed greatly, which makes it more difficult for export enterprises to benefit from the depreciation of the RMB

in the first half of this year, the central parity rate of the RMB against the United States experienced an overall trend of appreciation first, then depreciation, and then appreciation. The highest appreciation in the first half of this year was 6.860 on January 21, and the lowest depreciation in the first half of this year was 7.1316. Overall, the central parity rate of the RMB against the United States has depreciated from 6.9762 at the end of 2019 to 7.0795 on June 30 this year, with a cumulative depreciation of 1.48%

"with the changes in the domestic macro environment and market sentiment, the RMB exchange rate has shown a trend of rise and fall, but the overall performance is relatively stable." Wangchunying said that the RMB exchange rate rose first and then fell in January and February, and fluctuated in March. In May, it fluctuated with the impact of the international market and some other events. It has appreciated recently, and the two-way fluctuation trend is obvious

Wen bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, analyzed in an interview with international business daily that the change of RMB exchange rate in the first half of the year was mainly affected by three factors: first, the domestic epidemic in China at the beginning of the year affected market expectations, causing RMB depreciation and exchange rate fluctuations; Second, the spread of the overseas epidemic has impacted on China's foreign trade and other fields, reducing the income under the current account and promoting the depreciation of the RMB; Third, in March, the United States resorted to the big trick of "reducing interest rates to zero + unlimited quantitative easing", which exacerbated people's panic and led to fluctuations in the exchange rate market

however, on the whole, in the first half of the year, the transaction price of the RMB against the United States in the domestic market decreased slightly by 1.5%, but the RMB exchange rate index compiled by the China foreign exchange trading center increased slightly by 0.7%, while the currency index of emerging markets decreased by 11.8% in the same period. The RMB exchange rate as a whole showed a relatively stable development trend

the appreciation pressure increased in the second half of the year

since the beginning of the second half of the year, ABS glass fiber reinforced material has shown an overall appreciation trend for its many advantages, such as high rigidity, heat resistance, fatigue resistance, stable size, excellent processing performance and so on. Since July 10, the central parity rate of the RMB against the United States once reached 6.9718, rising to the highest value since the second half of the year

Wen bin believes that the appreciation of the RMB is formed under the action of multiple factors: first, China's economy has recovered step by step, basically for the good; Second, due to the aggravation of the epidemic in the United States and other factors, the United States showed a depreciation trend; Third, the capital market has warmed up, and overseas funds have accelerated their flow into China, supporting the stability of the scale of foreign exchange reserves in the next stage

"it is expected that the US index will probably fall in the second half of the year, and the RMB will appreciate slightly." Lian Ping, chief economist of Zhixin investment and President of the Research Institute, told the international business daily that at present, China's economy is basically good, while the U.S. economy and employment recession are relatively serious. These two factors will intensify the formation of weak beauty and promote the appreciation of the RMB. The pressure degree usually refers to the increase of the ability of materials to resist elastic deformation, plastic deformation and fracture under the action of external forces, The central parity rate of the RMB against the United States is expected to fluctuate between 6.8 and 7.2

Zhao Ping, director of the International Trade Research Department of the Research Institute of the China Council for the promotion of international trade, believes that the appreciation of the RMB is conducive to expanding imports, but detrimental to enterprise exports. In terms of import, weak international commodity prices have brought benefits to imports. From the perspective of trade, the sharp appreciation of the RMB will increase the pressure to promote exports. Only by finding an equilibrium point of the RMB exchange rate against the United States can it bring benefits to both imports and exports. At the same time, enterprises should strengthen risk research and judgment, be good at using financial instruments, plan in advance, and resolve the risk of exchange rate fluctuations

tanyaling, President and chief economist of China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, said that the particularity of the epidemic and the different economic conditions and macroeconomic policies of various countries make the current foreign exchange market in a more sensitive period, and the trend of foreign exchange in the second half of the year will also be more complex. But generally speaking, the RMB will not continue to appreciate significantly, and is expected to detour at the "7" pass

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