The hottest foreign trade environment faces multip

2022-10-24
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The foreign trade environment is facing multiple challenges, affecting Tu enterprises to wake up in the cold winter

the foreign trade environment is facing multiple challenges, affecting Tu enterprises to wake up in the cold winter

January 6, 2009

[China paint information] it is expected that China's total foreign trade import and export volume in 2009 will show a sharp decline in the same month over month for a long time, and the annual total foreign trade import and export volume (denominated in US dollars) may drop by about 20% compared with 2008. Among them, the annual average decline in total imports may be about 25%, and the annual average decline in total exports may be about 17%

first, the export volume is likely to show a sustained negative year-on-year growth. Under the combined effect of various adverse factors, the shrinking demand for Chinese goods in overseas markets will not be a short-term phenomenon, and it is likely to last for a period of time

first, the economies of developed countries led by the United States are facing severe challenges, especially the U.S. economy may be in a long-term downturn

facing the severe situation, international organizations generally predict that the world economic growth will slow down significantly in 2008 and 2009. According to the prediction of the International Monetary Fund in November 2008, according to the weighted summary of GDP by PPP method, the world economy grew by 3.7% in 2008, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous year; In 2009, it increased by 2.2%, 1.5 percentage points lower than that in 2008 Among them, developed countries will have the first overall negative growth since World War II in 2009

on December 9, 2008, the World Bank released the latest global economic outlook report. It is estimated that the global economic growth rate in 2009 will slow down to 0.9% from 2.5% in 2008, which is the smallest increase since the bank recorded the data in 1970. In 2009, the economy of high-income economies will decline by 0.1%; The economic growth rate of developing countries in 2008 and 2009 will slow down to 6.3% and 4.5% respectively, lower than 7.9% in 2007. The degree of economic slowdown is even more serious than when the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s and the Internet Foam Burst at the beginning of this century

among the major economies, the consumption expenditure level of the United States will decline significantly in 2008. According to the survey results of economists, the largest decline in U.S. consumer spending since 1942 will prolong the U.S. economic recession and bring the U.S. unemployment rate to the highest level in 25 years. In addition, according to the weighted estimation of survey data from 51 economists from December 4 to 9, 2008, household consumption expenditure in the United States will decline by 1% in 2009, the largest decline since Pearl Harbor was attacked; By the middle of 2009, the U.S. economy will experience the largest contraction in four consecutive quarters. The situation in Europe and Japan is equally dire

second, world trade protectionism may rise again. Since 2008, the global financial market has been turbulent and the economy has slowed significantly. Trade protectionism in Europe and the United States has begun to rise. The voice of protecting employment from competition from low-cost countries in rich countries has become increasingly high, and the United States and Europe echo each other in building high trade barriers. The reduction of international demand and the sluggish growth of trade will lead to the resurgence of world trade protectionism. At present, the trade protectionism of the ruling departments of the United States, the European Union, Japan and other countries and regions tends to increase, and it is clearly stated that effective measures will be taken to maintain the stability of regional market trade, and the external trade environment that China will face in the future will deteriorate

third, the substantial appreciation of the RMB real effective exchange rate will greatly curb the demand for Chinese goods in the international market. Since August 2008, the US dollar has appreciated strongly, and the appreciation against the euro, sterling, Australian dollar and other currencies has reached more than 20%, while the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has remained basically stable, which will greatly curb the demand for Chinese goods in these countries and regions. In the same period, the currencies of Vietnam Dong, Indian rupee, Korean won and other economies also depreciated significantly against the US dollar, and the import demand of Europe and the United States has shifted significantly to Vietnam and other economies, thus squeezing China's export demand

fourth, after long-term high-speed growth, the international market share of many goods in China has been close to the limit, and it is difficult to continue to maintain high growth by expanding market share. However, the market share is limited. Once the upper limit is reached, it is impossible to increase the growth rate of exports by increasing the market share, but only make the growth rate of commodity exports consistent with the growth rate of demand

under the combined effect of these adverse factors, the growth of China's export volume shrank in 2009. It is inevitable that a preliminary agreement has been signed on the salt water reuse project of the polycarbonate plant in Bayer Shanghai 1 chemical base. We predict that the actual export volume of China will decline in 2009, with a decline of about 5%

second, the actual import quantity will decline. Under the combined effect of the continuous slowdown of China's economy and the decline in the growth rate of actual exports, the growth rate of China's actual imports has declined significantly, and it is estimated that there has been a negative growth of about 5% in November 2008. It is expected that China's actual import in 2009 is likely to decline further on the basis of November 2008. The decrease may be about 7%

third, the overall export price level will decline to a certain extent. In 2009, under the constraints of adverse factors such as the sharp contraction of overseas demand and the possible significant slowdown of China's economy, the adverse factors that drove the rise in the US dollar price of China's export commodities before August 2008 have changed or will change significantly, which provides a huge space for the decline in the price of China's export commodities, and the overall price of China's exports will decline

first, the sharp fall in demand will exert great pressure on the price of export commodities. Since 2008, the sharp decline in the growth rate of overseas demand has put great pressure on the price of China's export commodities. Most enterprises can only maintain principal and low profits, and a considerable number of enterprises have been in trouble. The shrinking trend of overseas demand in 2009 remains the same, which will inevitably exert greater pressure on the decline of China's export commodity prices

second, the sharp fall in the prices of basic energy and raw materials has provided a huge space for the fall in the prices of China's export commodities. In the first nine months of 2008, the sharp rise in the prices of basic energy and raw materials is an important factor that makes it difficult for China's commodity prices to fall back. In the first eight months, the ex factory price (PPI) of industrial products in China continued to rise sharply. Since September, the rapid decline in the prices of basic energy and raw materials and the rapid contraction in demand have led to a sharp decline in PPI. It can be expected that the PPI will continue to decline. The year-on-year increase of China's PPI in 2009 is likely to be negative throughout the year, and the annual average decline is estimated to be about 3%

third, the reduction and cancellation of export tariffs and the sharp increase of export tax rebate rate have also provided space for the decline of export commodity prices. Since August 2008, the Chinese government has repeatedly reduced or cancelled the export tariffs of some export commodities, increased the export tax rebate rate of some commodities and the scope of commodities that increased the tax rebate rate. It is expected that there is still a large room for adjustment of China's export tax rebate rate

fourth, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is likely to depreciate to a certain extent, which will provide a certain downward adjustment space for China's export commodity prices

combined with factors such as the decline in demand, the sharp decline in the price of energy raw materials, the increase in the export tax rebate rate and the change in the RMB exchange rate, we predict that the overall average price of China's export commodities will decline by about 10% in 2009

fourth, the overall import price will fall sharply. In 2009, international commodity prices will continue to operate at a low level. Due to factors such as the sharp contraction of demand and the vigorous deleveraging of the use of funds by financial institutions, international commodity prices will continue to fluctuate at the current price level, even if they will not continue to decline significantly, and it is difficult to reproduce the sharp rise

considering that the proportion of primary products in China's imported commodities is more than 30%, the average price of primary products in 2009 may decline by about 40% compared with that in 2008. Combined with the decline of other imported commodity prices, the overall average price decline of China's imported commodities in 2009 may be about 17%

fifth, China's total monthly import and export volume will continue to grow negatively. Since November, 2008, due to the decline in the volume and price of China's import and export, China's monthly total import and export volume has continued to grow negatively. In 1998, due to the lagging impact of the Southeast Asian financial crisis, China's monthly total foreign trade import and export volume continued to show negative year-on-year growth for eight months since July of that year. Since November 2008, the further development and spread of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis may also lead to China's reproduction of the detailed Jinan trial next month. I will introduce how to use the electronic extensometer: the total import and export volume of foreign trade continued to grow negatively year-on-year

in the last round (1998), China's total foreign trade import and export continued to have a negative year-on-year growth. Except for a large decline in a few months, the negative year-on-year growth in other months was relatively small, all within -5%

however, this round of sustained negative growth will be significantly different from the previous round. The decline of China's total foreign trade import and export volume is much higher than the previous round. First of all, the last crisis was mainly the significant impact on Southeast Asia, East Asia and other countries and regions. The economies of developed countries in Europe and the United States were not greatly affected, and external demand has always existed. However, in this financial and economic crisis, developed countries in Europe and the United States were the most affected, and developing countries and regions were not spared. Secondly, at the time of the Southeast Asian financial crisis, China's degree of internationalization was still very low and its economic external dependence was also very small. However, at present, the degree of internationalization of China's economy has been greatly deepened and its economic external dependence has also increased significantly

considering the changes in import and export prices and quantities, it is expected that China's total foreign trade import and export volume in 2009 will show a significant monthly year-on-year decline for a long time, and the annual total foreign trade import and export volume (denominated in US dollars) may fall by about 20% compared with 2008. Among them, the annual average decline in total imports may be about 25%, and the annual average decline in total exports may be about 17%

Sixth, China's terms of trade will be effectively improved. In 2009, China's terms of trade will be greatly improved. Since July 2008, with the sharp fall in the price of international energy raw materials, China's import prices have begun to fall sharply. The import price index fell from 122.70 in August 2008 to 110.80 in October, and may have fallen sharply to 88 in November. In the same period, although China's export commodity price index is also falling, the decline is far smaller than the decline of import price index. Reflected in terms of trade, it has rebounded from the low point of 89.0 in July 2008 to 97.8 in October, and rose to about 110 in November. This shows that China's terms of trade have begun to improve significantly. Based on our analysis of the trend of China's import and export prices in 2009, China's terms of trade will continue to improve in 2009

seventh, the trade surplus will remain at a high level. In the first three quarters of 2008, although China's total import and export volume maintained a high-speed growth momentum, China's trade surplus continued to be lower than that of the same period last year due to the continuous deterioration of China's terms of trade. However, since September 2008, with the continuous improvement of China's terms of trade, China's monthly trade surplus has continued to increase. From September to November, China's trade surplus hit new highs, reaching US $29.367 billion, US $35.239 billion and US $40.090 billion respectively. Among them, the monthly trade surplus in November hit a new high of $40billion, which was achieved on the basis of a 9% decline in total foreign trade imports and exports

2009, as China's terms of trade will continue to improve, although China's total import and export volume may

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